He’s ahead by around 5 points, just a little above Clinton’s nearly 4-point lead four years ago. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes):įiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +3.7īiden is in better shape than Clinton in the most-likely tipping-point state - but not by much. This is the only one of the 13 states in this analysis where Trump currently leads in the polling average - even after a Quinnipiac poll out on Monday gave Biden a 4-point advantage. Scott Mahaskey/Politico)įiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +1.9 2, 2020 at Wilkes-Barre Scranton International Airport in Avoca, Penn., on the eve of the national election. President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally Nov.
It was an early sign the night was breaking his way in a state where the polls close early (7:30 p.m. Trump out-ran his polls there in 2016, winning the state by almost 4 points. There’s a slight gap between the live-interview polls - the final two, from CNN/SSRS and NBC News/Marist, showed Biden ahead by 6 points - and web surveys showing essentially a tied race. North Carolina (15 electoral votes):įiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +0.7Īs in 2016, the polls are tight in North Carolina. He’s down by at least twice that now: Two in-state academic pollsters showed Biden ahead by 8 points last week. Trump’s narrow 2016 loss in New Hampshire came after entering Election Day within 4 points in the polls. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes):įiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +3.6 That makes his current 5-point deficit appear more daunting. Nevada was another state where Trump didn’t overperform his polls in 2016. Nevada (6 electoral votes):įiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +1.8 But in order to make a real challenge there this year, he’d have to overcome a bigger Biden advantage of nearly 10 points. Trump’s narrow loss in Minnesota was an underrated surprise from 2016. Minnesota (10 electoral votes):įiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +5.8 They’d have to be way off for Trump to win there again. The live-interview polls in the final two weeks of the race gave Biden a lead between 7 and 12 points. Michigan (16 electoral votes):įiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +4.2īiden’s 8-point advantage in Michigan - the state Trump won by the narrowest margin in 2016 - is nearly twice Hillary Clinton’s pre-2016 lead. But the Register’s final poll was also better for Trump than the average in 2016 - and it was right. That’s out of line with the average, which showed a closer race. The most promising news for Trump in the polls in the 72 hours before the election came from Iowa, where a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showed the president ahead by 7 points.
Iowa (6 electoral votes):įiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +2.9 He and Biden are neck-and-neck now, with the Democrat a point ahead in the FiveThirtyEight average. Georgia has raced away from Trump in the polls: He led by 4 points on the eve of the 2016 election and won by 5 - the rare state where Trump didn’t overperform significantly on Election Day. Georgia (16 electoral votes):įiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +4 The final live-caller poll, from Quinnipiac University, showed Biden ahead by 5 points - though Quinnipiac overestimated Democrats in the state in the 2018 midterms. Florida (29 electoral votes):įiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +0.6īiden enters the election about 2 points stronger than Clinton was in 2016, when Trump emerged with a 1-point victory. Here’s a state-by-state guide to the latest polls at the end of the election in 13 of the 14 states rated either as "Toss Ups," "Lean Republican" or "Lean Democratic" in POLITICO's Election Forecast (minus Alaska, where there is little public polling): Arizona (11 electoral votes):įiveThirtyEight average as of Monday evening: Biden +2.6įiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +2.4īefitting its toss-up status, the final live-interview poll in Arizona, an NBC News/Marist poll released Monday, showed a tied race in Arizona, 48 percent to 48 percent.īiden does lead in the polling average, however, as other late surveys have given him the edge, including a 6-point lead in a New York Times/Siena College poll out on Sunday. Some of the states are close, but the polls would have to be significantly more inaccurate than they were in 2016 for Trump to prevail. The final polls before the election, released on Monday, continued to show Joe Biden ahead in enough swing states to win.
President Donald Trump is in a deeper hole heading into Election Day than he was four years ago, when he stunned Hillary Clinton and most of America. Joe Biden salutes supporters after speaking during a drive-in campaign rally at Lexington Technology Park on Nov.
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